(Bloomberg) — Prime Minister Theresa May puts her Brexit understanding back to Parliament on Tuesday to try to remove the ancestral better it suffered in January. It’s doubtful she will have cumulative enough concessions from Brussels to win over lawmakers, withdrawal her with just one clever label to play: If they opinion down her deal, Brexit could be deserted in all but name — or even altogether.
May has betrothed that if members of Parliament reject her divorce treaty, they will then get a opinion on either to take the nation out of the European Union into authorised dilapidation — an choice prior ballots have shown they will reject. Then there will be a opinion on postponing the Mar 29 exit day.
Here are the options:
1. May Pulls It Off
Negotiators are operative through the weekend to try to find tweaks to the understanding May negotiated last year to make it more excusable to Parliament. Both sides are gloomy, but we’ve seen last-minute breakthroughs before. Whatever is concluded contingency remonstrate the pro-Brexit coterie of the Conservative Party and also the proudly tenatious Northern Irish lawmakers who column up her government. If she pulls it off, markets will rally.
2. Extend, and Go Soft
If the understanding is rejected, the most expected subsequent step is that members of Parliament start maneuvering to force the supervision into a softer Brexit process that can win cross-party support. Labour personality Jeremy Corbyn has already been articulate to backbench members of the Conservative Party who want to say tighten ties to the bloc. Norway Plus and the Customs Union will be back on the table. Markets will see this as tolerably positive.
3. One More Try
If she’s degraded on Tuesday, the primary apportion could be tempted to give lawmakers one more possibility to back her understanding — now that the awaiting of an prolongation to Brexit day is before them. It’s not transparent when she might do this — but it could be as shortly as subsequent week.
4. Call the Whole Thing Off
Members of Parliament are set to put brazen amendments subsequent week job for a second referendum. Labour has come out in preference of a second opinion — despite with some reservations. There’s probably still not a infancy in Parliament for a re-run, but that could change in the weeks ahead. May pronounced on Friday the chances of another plebiscite have left up since Labour altered the position. Expect her to keep personification that up as she tries to remonstrate purists that her chronicle of Brexit is better than the risk of nothing at all. Markets see a second referendum as positive.
5. Postponing the Cliff-Edge
It’s just probable that no infancy for any kind of Brexit emerges in Parliament. If that happens, Parliament stays gridlocked, the EU reluctantly agrees to a brief prolongation to equivocate the pain of no-deal, and in 3 months time we’re back to the cliff-edge. This is what Brexit hardliners are anticipating for — that they will get another possibility to force May to take the U.K. out of the confederation with no deal. Markets will unemployment if this starts to look likely.
–With assistance from Charlotte Ryan.
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